Netherlands - NETHERLANDS: Eerste DivisieFootball · Match analysis

Den Bosch vs Helmond — prediction 18.09.2026

Den Bosch

Home
Full time2:1 Europe/Prague

Helmond

Away

THE MODEL'S VIEW

Predictions by market

Green = recommended

Each probability refers to the selection shown on its card. A high probability alone is not a recommendation.

Both teams to score

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First half over 0.5

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Match over 0.5

Not recommended
95.8%model probability
Evaluated selection

Match over 0.5

Pending
Model data
Prediction
95.8%
Fair market
95.4%
Edge
+0.3 pp

Match over 1.5

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Match over 2.5

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Handicap

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Team to score

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Match total under

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Home / away win

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EVIDENCE AND LIMITATIONS

What the saved data show

Den Bosch: 4 earlier matches in the archive; 1 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses. Goals scored: 9; conceded: 12. Both teams scored in 4 games and over 2.5 goals occurred in 4. The sample contains 2 home and 2 away games.

Helmond: 5 earlier matches in the archive; 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses. Goals scored: 11; conceded: 9. Both teams scored in 5 games and over 2.5 goals occurred in 4. The sample contains 3 home and 2 away games.

Archive window: up to 6 verified earlier games per team within 365 days. This may be a small, incomplete sample, not the team's entire season. These results describe the current archive; they are not a reconstruction of the predictor's pre-match inputs and do not explain its decision on their own. See games and sources →

Match over 0.5

The stored estimate for Match over 0.5 is 95.8%; the recorded decision is not recommended. Stored edge: +0.3 percentage points.

Recorded reason (original source wording): whole-match funnel ft_o05 probability=95.8% | whole-match funnel O0.5 probability=95.8% | selection confidence (shadow: calibrator has no validated holdout for this probability ...

Recorded results for this market →

How to interpret the percentage

The percentage is the model's estimate for the stated selection in this saved forecast. It is not the historical hit rate: a model estimate of 89.8% does not establish that 89.8% of comparable picks won. That requires a separate, dated, settled sample for the same market. The public results page reports its sample and counting rules; hit rate is not profit or ROI.

Automatically assembled from published records by BetData. Service responsibility: Dmitry Bychenko. This does not imply individual human review of the match. The model version and import time are shown below; an import time is not a verified calculation time.

TEAM COMPARISON

Team statistics

Up to 6 recent matches

Completed matches available in the BetData archive, across all competitions. Only games before this fixture and before the current time are included, within a 365-day window. This may not be the team's complete history.

De

Den Bosch

Home team · 4 matches in sample
Recent → older
LLWL
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
3
Goals scored
9
Goals conceded
12
Scored / match
2.25
Conceded / match
3.00
Clean sheets0/4Both scored4/43+ total goals4/4

Sample: home 2 · away 2. Historical results, not forecast probabilities.

Recent results · Den Bosch
DateTeams / goalsResult for Den Bosch
HomeJong PSV3 AwayDen Bosch1 Netherlands - NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie L
HomeDen Bosch1 AwayVitesse4 Netherlands - NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie L
HomeDen Bosch5 AwayEindhoven FC2 Netherlands - NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie W
HomeHeracles3 AwayDen Bosch2 Netherlands - NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie L

Each team's goals appear next to its name. Home team first, away team second. W / D / L refers to Den Bosch.

Results source: Flashscore · BetData archive

He

Helmond

Away team · 5 matches in sample
Recent → older
WWLDL
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
2
Goals scored
11
Goals conceded
9
Scored / match
2.20
Conceded / match
1.80
Clean sheets0/5Both scored5/53+ total goals4/5

Sample: home 3 · away 2. Historical results, not forecast probabilities.

Recent results · Helmond
DateTeams / goalsResult for Helmond
HomeHelmond3 AwayJong PSV1 Netherlands - NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie W
HomeHelmond4 AwayVenlo2 Netherlands - NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie W
HomeJong Ajax3 AwayHelmond2 Netherlands - NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie L
HomeHelmond1 AwayWaalwijk1 Netherlands - NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie D
HomeRoda2 AwayHelmond1 Netherlands - NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie L

Each team's goals appear next to its name. Home team first, away team second. W / D / L refers to Helmond.

Results source: Flashscore · BetData archive

Head-to-head

0 matches in archive window

No verified head-to-head results are available in this archive window. This does not mean these teams have never met.

Archive reference as available now; not a snapshot of the predictor's original inputs. Later corrections to recorded results can update this section. These statistics do not change the model's saved probabilities or recommendations. xG, shots and line-ups are omitted when verified data is unavailable.

PUBLISHED RECORD

Forecast details

Forecast date
18.09.2026 ↗
Imported
18.09.2026 00:01
Model version
sha256-282c7c04d26e · 282c7c04d26e
Time zone
Europe/Prague

These are saved pre-match estimates, not live odds. Missing form, line-up and xG data are not replaced with invented statistics.

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