Estonia - ESTONIA: EsiliigaFootball · Match analysis

Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco — prediction 05.09.2026

Tallinna Kalev

Home
Full time1:1 Europe/Prague

Tartu Welco

Away

THE MODEL'S VIEW

Predictions by market

Green = recommended

Each probability refers to the selection shown on its card. A high probability alone is not a recommendation.

Both teams to score

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First half over 0.5

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Match over 0.5

Not recommended
95.2%model probability
Evaluated selection

Match over 0.5

Pending
Model data
Prediction
90.0%
Fair market
—
Edge
—

Match over 1.5

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Match over 2.5

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Handicap

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Team to score

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Match total under

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Home / away win

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EVIDENCE AND LIMITATIONS

What the saved data show

Tallinna Kalev: 2 earlier matches in the archive; 1 wins, 0 draws, 1 losses. Goals scored: 9; conceded: 3. Both teams scored in 1 games and over 2.5 goals occurred in 2. The sample contains 2 home and 0 away games.

Tartu Welco: 2 earlier matches in the archive; 1 wins, 0 draws, 1 losses. Goals scored: 9; conceded: 3. Both teams scored in 1 games and over 2.5 goals occurred in 2. The sample contains 1 home and 1 away games.

Archive window: up to 6 verified earlier games per team within 365 days. This may be a small, incomplete sample, not the team's entire season. These results describe the current archive; they are not a reconstruction of the predictor's pre-match inputs and do not explain its decision on their own. See games and sources →

Match over 0.5

The stored estimate for Match over 0.5 is 95.2%; the recorded decision is not recommended.

Recorded reason (original source wording): zero filter strict: primary goal signals outweigh H2H/lambda (1X2=no, BTTS=no, 1H=n/a, O1.5=None, lambda=4.38662639793127) | O0.5 probability capped below manual threshold after...

Recorded results for this market →

How to interpret the percentage

The percentage is the model's estimate for the stated selection in this saved forecast. It is not the historical hit rate: a model estimate of 89.8% does not establish that 89.8% of comparable picks won. That requires a separate, dated, settled sample for the same market. The public results page reports its sample and counting rules; hit rate is not profit or ROI.

Automatically assembled from published records by BetData. Service responsibility: Dmitry Bychenko. This does not imply individual human review of the match. The model version and import time are shown below; an import time is not a verified calculation time.

TEAM COMPARISON

Team statistics

Up to 6 recent matches

Completed matches available in the BetData archive, across all competitions. Only games before this fixture and before the current time are included, within a 365-day window. This may not be the team's complete history.

Ta

Tallinna Kalev

Home team · 2 matches in sample
Recent → older
LW
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1
Goals scored
9
Goals conceded
3
Scored / match
4.50
Conceded / match
1.50
Clean sheets1/2Both scored1/23+ total goals2/2

Sample: home 2 · away 0. Historical results, not forecast probabilities.

Recent results · Tallinna Kalev
DateTeams / goalsResult for Tallinna Kalev
HomeTallinna Kalev1 AwayMaardu3 Estonia - ESTONIA: Esiliiga L
HomeTallinna Kalev8 AwayTartu Kalev0 Estonia - ESTONIA: Estonian Cup W

Each team's goals appear next to its name. Home team first, away team second. W / D / L refers to Tallinna Kalev.

Results source: Flashscore · BetData archive

Ta

Tartu Welco

Away team · 2 matches in sample
Recent → older
LW
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1
Goals scored
9
Goals conceded
3
Scored / match
4.50
Conceded / match
1.50
Clean sheets1/2Both scored1/23+ total goals2/2

Sample: home 1 · away 1. Historical results, not forecast probabilities.

Recent results · Tartu Welco
DateTeams / goalsResult for Tartu Welco
HomeTartu Welco1 AwayViimsi JK3 Estonia - ESTONIA: Esiliiga L
HomeKose0 AwayTartu Welco8 Estonia - ESTONIA: Estonian Cup W

Each team's goals appear next to its name. Home team first, away team second. W / D / L refers to Tartu Welco.

Results source: Flashscore · BetData archive

Head-to-head

0 matches in archive window

No verified head-to-head results are available in this archive window. This does not mean these teams have never met.

Archive reference as available now; not a snapshot of the predictor's original inputs. Later corrections to recorded results can update this section. These statistics do not change the model's saved probabilities or recommendations. xG, shots and line-ups are omitted when verified data is unavailable.

PUBLISHED RECORD

Forecast details

Forecast date
05.09.2026 ↗
Imported
05.09.2026 00:04
Model version
sha256-282c7c04d26e · 282c7c04d26e
Time zone
Europe/Prague

These are saved pre-match estimates, not live odds. Missing form, line-up and xG data are not replaced with invented statistics.

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