Both teams to score
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England - ENGLAND: ChampionshipFootball · Match analysis
Derby vs Birmingham — prediction 12.09.2026
Derby
Home
Full time1:2
Europe/Prague
Birmingham
AwayTHE MODEL'S VIEW
Predictions by market
Each probability refers to the selection shown on its card. A high probability alone is not a recommendation.
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First half over 0.5
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Match over 0.5
92.8%model probability
Evaluated selection
Match over 0.5
Pending
Model data
- Prediction
- 92.1%
- Fair market
- 89.4%
- Edge
- +3.4 pp
Match over 1.5
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Match over 2.5
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Handicap
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Team to score
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Match total under
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Home / away win
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EVIDENCE AND LIMITATIONS
What the saved data show
Derby: 5 earlier matches in the archive; 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses. Goals scored: 4; conceded: 9. Both teams scored in 1 games and over 2.5 goals occurred in 3. The sample contains 3 home and 2 away games.
Birmingham: 6 earlier matches in the archive; 1 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses. Goals scored: 10; conceded: 11. Both teams scored in 6 games and over 2.5 goals occurred in 5. The sample contains 2 home and 4 away games.
Archive window: up to 6 verified earlier games per team within 365 days. This may be a small, incomplete sample, not the team's entire season. These results describe the current archive; they are not a reconstruction of the predictor's pre-match inputs and do not explain its decision on their own. See games and sources →
Match over 0.5
The stored estimate for Match over 0.5 is 92.8%; the recorded decision is not recommended. Stored edge: +3.4 percentage points.
Recorded reason (original source wording): whole-match funnel O0.5 probability=92.1% | zero filter strict: primary goal signals outweigh H2H/lambda (1X2=no, BTTS=no, 1H=n/a, O1.5=1.34, lambda=3.0130395061728397)
How to interpret the percentage
The percentage is the model's estimate for the stated selection in this saved forecast. It is not the historical hit rate: a model estimate of 89.8% does not establish that 89.8% of comparable picks won. That requires a separate, dated, settled sample for the same market. The public results page reports its sample and counting rules; hit rate is not profit or ROI.
Automatically assembled from published records by BetData. Service responsibility: Dmitry Bychenko. This does not imply individual human review of the match. The model version and import time are shown below; an import time is not a verified calculation time.
TEAM COMPARISON
Team statistics
Completed matches available in the BetData archive, across all competitions. Only games before this fixture and before the current time are included, within a 365-day window. This may not be the team's complete history.
De
Derby
Home team · 5 matches in sampleRecent → older
LLWLD
- Wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Losses
- 3
- Goals scored
- 4
- Goals conceded
- 9
- Scored / match
- 0.80
- Conceded / match
- 1.80
Clean sheets1/5Both scored1/53+ total goals3/5
Sample: home 3 · away 2. Historical results, not forecast probabilities.
| Date | Teams / goals | Result for Derby |
|---|---|---|
| HomeDerby0 AwayWest Brom1 England - ENGLAND: Championship | L | |
| HomeWest Ham3 AwayDerby0 England - ENGLAND: Championship | L | |
| HomePortsmouth0 AwayDerby2 England - ENGLAND: Championship | W | |
| HomeDerby0 AwaySwansea3 England - ENGLAND: Championship | L | |
| HomeDerby2 AwayCardiff2 England - ENGLAND: Championship | D |
Each team's goals appear next to its name. Home team first, away team second. W / D / L refers to Derby.
Results source: Flashscore · BetData archive
Bi
Birmingham
Away team · 6 matches in sampleRecent → older
LDDDLW
- Wins
- 1
- Draws
- 3
- Losses
- 2
- Goals scored
- 10
- Goals conceded
- 11
- Scored / match
- 1.67
- Conceded / match
- 1.83
Clean sheets0/6Both scored6/63+ total goals5/6
Sample: home 2 · away 4. Historical results, not forecast probabilities.
| Date | Teams / goals | Result for Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| HomeNorwich2 AwayBirmingham1 England - ENGLAND: Championship | L | |
| HomeBirmingham2 AwayWolves2 England - ENGLAND: Championship | D | |
| HomeIndy Eleven2 AwayBirmingham2 USA - USA: USL Championship | D | |
| HomeBirmingham1 AwaySouthampton1 England - ENGLAND: Championship | D | |
| HomeHartford Athletic3 AwayBirmingham2 USA - USA: USL Championship | L | |
| HomeWrexham1 AwayBirmingham2 England - ENGLAND: Championship | W |
Each team's goals appear next to its name. Home team first, away team second. W / D / L refers to Birmingham.
Results source: Flashscore · BetData archive
Head-to-head
0 matches in archive windowNo verified head-to-head results are available in this archive window. This does not mean these teams have never met.
Archive reference as available now; not a snapshot of the predictor's original inputs. Later corrections to recorded results can update this section. These statistics do not change the model's saved probabilities or recommendations. xG, shots and line-ups are omitted when verified data is unavailable.
PUBLISHED RECORD
Forecast details
- Forecast date
- 12.09.2026 ↗
- Imported
- 12.09.2026 10:09
- Model version
- sha256-282c7c04d26e ·
282c7c04d26e - Time zone
- Europe/Prague
These are saved pre-match estimates, not live odds. Missing form, line-up and xG data are not replaced with invented statistics.
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