Both teams to score
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Uruguay - URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - ClausuraFootball · Match analysis
Montevideo City vs Penarol — prediction 01.10.2026
Montevideo City
Home
Full time1:1
Europe/Prague
Penarol
AwayTHE MODEL'S VIEW
Predictions by market
Each probability refers to the selection shown on its card. A high probability alone is not a recommendation.
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First half over 0.5
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Match over 0.5
90.6%model probability
Evaluated selection
Match over 0.5
Pending
Model data
- Prediction
- 90.6%
- Fair market
- 90.3%
- Edge
- +0.3 pp
Match over 1.5
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Match over 2.5
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Handicap
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Team to score
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Match total under
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Home / away win
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EVIDENCE AND LIMITATIONS
What the saved data show
Montevideo City: 5 earlier matches in the archive; 4 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses. Goals scored: 15; conceded: 7. Both teams scored in 5 games and over 2.5 goals occurred in 5. The sample contains 3 home and 2 away games.
Penarol: 6 earlier matches in the archive; 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses. Goals scored: 8; conceded: 6. Both teams scored in 2 games and over 2.5 goals occurred in 3. The sample contains 3 home and 3 away games.
Archive window: up to 6 verified earlier games per team within 365 days. This may be a small, incomplete sample, not the team's entire season. These results describe the current archive; they are not a reconstruction of the predictor's pre-match inputs and do not explain its decision on their own. See games and sources →
Match over 0.5
The stored estimate for Match over 0.5 is 90.6%; the recorded decision is not recommended. Stored edge: +0.3 percentage points.
Recorded reason (original source wording): whole-match funnel ft_o05 probability=90.6% | whole-match funnel O0.5 probability=90.6% | selection confidence (shadow: calibrator has no validated holdout for this probability ...
How to interpret the percentage
The percentage is the model's estimate for the stated selection in this saved forecast. It is not the historical hit rate: a model estimate of 89.8% does not establish that 89.8% of comparable picks won. That requires a separate, dated, settled sample for the same market. The public results page reports its sample and counting rules; hit rate is not profit or ROI.
Automatically assembled from published records by BetData. Service responsibility: Dmitry Bychenko. This does not imply individual human review of the match. The model version and import time are shown below; an import time is not a verified calculation time.
TEAM COMPARISON
Team statistics
Completed matches available in the BetData archive, across all competitions. Only games before this fixture and before the current time are included, within a 365-day window. This may not be the team's complete history.
Mo
Montevideo City
Home team · 5 matches in sampleRecent → older
DWWWW
- Wins
- 4
- Draws
- 1
- Losses
- 0
- Goals scored
- 15
- Goals conceded
- 7
- Scored / match
- 3.00
- Conceded / match
- 1.40
Clean sheets0/5Both scored5/53+ total goals5/5
Sample: home 3 · away 2. Historical results, not forecast probabilities.
| Date | Teams / goals | Result for Montevideo City |
|---|---|---|
| HomeMontevideo City3 AwayAtenas3 Uruguay - URUGUAY: Copa Uruguay | D | |
| HomeCentral Esp.1 AwayMontevideo City4 Uruguay - URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura | W | |
| HomeMontevideo City3 AwayLiverpool M.1 Uruguay - URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura | W | |
| HomeMontevideo City2 AwayCerro Largo1 Uruguay - URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura | W | |
| HomeDefensor Sp.1 AwayMontevideo City3 Uruguay - URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura | W |
Each team's goals appear next to its name. Home team first, away team second. W / D / L refers to Montevideo City.
Results source: Flashscore · BetData archive
Pe
Penarol
Away team · 6 matches in sampleRecent → older
DWWLDL
- Wins
- 2
- Draws
- 2
- Losses
- 2
- Goals scored
- 8
- Goals conceded
- 6
- Scored / match
- 1.33
- Conceded / match
- 1.00
Clean sheets2/6Both scored2/63+ total goals3/6
Sample: home 3 · away 3. Historical results, not forecast probabilities.
| Date | Teams / goals | Result for Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| HomeDanubio1 AwayPenarol1 Uruguay - URUGUAY: Copa Uruguay | D | |
| HomePenarol3 AwayAlbion1 Uruguay - URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura | W | |
| HomeDanubio0 AwayPenarol4 Uruguay - URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura | W | |
| HomePenarol0 AwayNacional1 Uruguay - URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura | L | |
| HomeMaldonado0 AwayPenarol0 Uruguay - URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura | D | |
| HomePenarol0 AwayManicore3 Brazil - BRAZIL: Amazonense 2 | L |
Each team's goals appear next to its name. Home team first, away team second. W / D / L refers to Penarol.
Results source: Flashscore · BetData archive
Head-to-head
0 matches in archive windowNo verified head-to-head results are available in this archive window. This does not mean these teams have never met.
Archive reference as available now; not a snapshot of the predictor's original inputs. Later corrections to recorded results can update this section. These statistics do not change the model's saved probabilities or recommendations. xG, shots and line-ups are omitted when verified data is unavailable.
PUBLISHED RECORD
Forecast details
- Forecast date
- 01.10.2026 ↗
- Imported
- 01.10.2026 00:01
- Model version
- sha256-282c7c04d26e ·
282c7c04d26e - Time zone
- Europe/Prague
These are saved pre-match estimates, not live odds. Missing form, line-up and xG data are not replaced with invented statistics.
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